Pick-3 Breakdown

If you want to win Pick-3 you need to know what the game is 
really about.  On the surface the game appears to be a matter 
of picking one number out of a thousand. Nothing could be 
further from the truth.



Let's look beneath the surface of Pick-3.



There are one thousand numbers consisting of three individual 
digits from 0-0-0 through 9-9-9 from digits 0123456789.  



We call numbers with three unique digits "Unmatched" 1-2-3.



We call numbers with two unique digits "Doubles" 1-2-2.



We call numbers with one unique digit "Triples" 2-2-2.



The game pays for numbers correctly predicted and played as 
"Straight" which means the digits are drawn in the exact order 
as played. And "Box" which means the same digits as drawn, but 
in any order.  If 2-1-2 were drawn you would have had to play 
2-1-2 to win Straight or one of 1-2-2, 2-1-2, 2-2-1 to win 
Box.    



Box pays a third to a sixth of Straight because Unmatched 
numbers have six ways of positioning the digits, Doubles have 
three.  Triples, there is only Straight.



Unlike the larger Pick-5 and Pick-6 games, the Box prize is 
not a consolation for having the correct digits in the wrong 
order.  It is a totally separate play independent of the 
Straight play.  Some states allow the front or back Pair to be 
played "Straight" these are also totally independent plays.



Breaking down the One Thousand Pick-3 numbers we find . . .



Unmatched: 720 Straight numbers = 72% percent = 120 Boxed.

Doubles: 270 Straight numbers = 27% percent = 90 Boxed.

Triples: 10 Straight numbers = 1% percent = no Boxed.



Because the Pick-3 digits are pictured as "numbers" 0123456789 
we can treat these identifiers as if numbers for the purpose 
of a further breakdown into "Odd" and "Even" configurations.



Odd = 1 3 5 7 9

Even = 0 2 4 6 8



All the numbers fall into four groups based on Odd/Even.



All Odd 0-2-4 = O-O-O = 125 numbers = 12.5% = 35 Box = A group 

All Even 1-3-5 = E-E-E = 125 numbers = 12.5% = 35 Box = B group

More Odd 1-3-4 = O-O-E = 375 numbers = 37.5% = 75 Box = C group

More Even 0-2-3 = E-E-O = 375 numbers = 37.5% = 75 Box = D group



There are 35 pure Odd Box numbers. The A group.



There are 5 Triples.

111, 333, 555, 777, 999

There are 10 Unmatched Odd Box numbers.

135, 137, 139, 157, 159, 179 

357, 359, 379, 579

There are 20 Double Odd Box numbers.

113, 115, 117, 119

133, 155, 177, 199

335, 337, 339

355, 377, 399

557, 559

577, 599

779, 799



There are 35 pure Even Box numbers. The B group.



There are 5 Triples.

000, 222, 444, 666, 888

There are 10 Unmatched Even Box numbers.

024, 026, 028, 046, 048, 068 

246, 248, 268, 468

There are 20 Double Even Box numbers.

002, 004, 006, 008

022, 044, 066, 088

224, 226, 228

244, 266, 288

446, 448

466, 488

668, 688



There are 75 leaning toward Odd numbers. The C group.

Unmatched 50

013, 123, 134, 136, 138

015, 125, 145, 156, 158

017, 127, 147, 167, 178

019, 129, 149, 169, 189

035, 235, 345, 356, 358

037, 237, 347, 367, 378

039, 239, 349, 369, 389

057, 257, 457, 567, 578

059, 259, 459, 569, 589

079, 279, 479, 679, 789

Doubles 25

011, 112, 114, 116, 118

033, 233, 334, 336, 338

055, 255, 455, 556, 558B

077, 277, 477, 677, 778

099, 299, 499, 699, 899




There are 75 leaning toward Even numbers. The D group.

Unmatched 50

012, 023, 025, 027, 029

014, 034, 045, 047, 049

016, 036, 056, 067, 069

018, 038, 058, 078, 089

124, 234, 245, 247, 249

126, 236, 256, 267, 279

128, 238, 258, 278, 289

146, 346, 456, 467, 489

148, 348, 458, 478, 489

168, 368, 568, 678, 689

Doubles 25

001, 122, 144, 166, 188
 
003, 223, 344, 366, 388

005, 225, 445, 566, 588

007, 227, 447, 667, 788

009, 229, 449, 788, 889



Turning This Information Into A System



Pick-3 is a negative expectation game.  This means you can buy 
a win, but you can't make a profit doing so.



Buying all one thousand combinations Straight for a dollar per 
play would cost $1000.00 and returns $500.00.



Buying all 210 Boxed combinations for a dollar per play would 
cost $210.00 and return either $80.00 for Unmatched or $160.00 
for a Double.



Buying all 120 Unmatched Box combinations for a dollar per 
play would cost $120.00 and return $80.00 two times in three.



Buying all 90 Doubles Boxed combinations for a dollar per play 
would cost $90.00 and return $160.00, but you can only expect 
Doubles to be drawn one time in three to four draws.



To make a Pick-3 system work, the system author has to setup 
conditions where a series of correct choices by the user will 
result in a win.  In other words, the choices you make will 
determine whether you win or lose.



In this system there is one to four choices to be made 
correctly in order to profit at Pick-3.



The first is whether to play today at all.  I know it sounds 
weird to make not playing a part of any winning system, but it 
is the only way to deal with days when there is no clear path.



It is always better not to play then to lose as the difference 
doesn't have to be made up out of future wins.  It's hard to 
recover when losing negates the value of future wins, so don't 
play when the signs don't point to a group: A, B, C, D.



The second decision is whether unmatched or doubles will be 
drawn.  As you can see, we can quickly eliminate a lot of 
numbers when we decide to play only unmatched or only doubles.



The third choice allows for ignoring the second decision if 
choice isn't clear and requires one of the four groups be 
chosen for play, the: A, B, C, or D group.



The forth choice can be skipped if groups A or B were chosen, 
but should be applied if either C or D is expected to contain 
the winning number and the second decision was skipped.  



The forth choice is to eliminate one or two digits out of the 
ten.  This means you don't play any number containing those 
digit(s), thus 15 - 30 numbers are eliminated out of the 75.



The usual charting methods should be applied tracking the four 
groups' skips and hits in the hopes of determining which is 
due in the next draw.  We don't have to pick between unmatched 
and doubles, but the profits improve when we do so correctly. 



The digits should be tracked so the dead numbers can be 
eliminated when necessary.



Tracking should demonstrate you shouldn't play the same group 
back to back. I know they will occasionally come in that way, 
but we want to play what happens most often, not rarely.



Doubles tend to come in clusters, watch for a series of 3-5 
Unmatched draws to end with several Doubles.



All Odd or all Even are due an average of 1 in 8 to 10 draws.  



Two digits repeating are due an average of 1 in 8 to 10 draws.



A Double repeating its two digits averages 1 in 20-25 draws.



Triples are expected once every 99 draws, see if they either 
hit more often in your game or return with a second hit within 
a third of the time they were out since their last draw. Sort 
of a leap frog effect to watch for. 



If positive about doubles being due, play all three of their 
variations Straight at a dollar each for a $500.00 win.



Ignore "expert" advice about playing sums, it's totally bogus.



A game you can win will have a natural rhythm with digits 
raising, cresting and falling away only to begin the process 
again.  The hot numbers will tend to remain hot, the average 
will remain average and the cold will remain cold for a time 
and then reorder themselves.  If this appears disjointed in 
your game, your lottery may be attempting to disrupt the flow
by aggressively switching ballsets and machines or uses a 
computer draw.  



If you find you can't seem to win often enough to be useful, 
either you aren't trying hard enough or it's a game you 
shouldn't be playing.